In 1720, Isaac Newton did something extraordinary. Not the gravity thing. Not the calculus thing. He looked at a stock that had already made him a small fortune, sold his position for a tidy profit of around £7,000, and walked away. A rational exit. A textbook move. Then he bought back in. Near the top. […]
South Sea Bubble: Isaac Newton Lost a Fortune Here. What Makes You Think You’re Smarter? Read More »
There is an old saying on Wall Street that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from high enough. The image is grotesque on purpose. It is supposed to make you uncomfortable, because the thing it describes should make you uncomfortable too. A dead cat bounce is when a stock or an entire
Dead Cat Bounces and Other Ways the Market Breaks Your Heart Read More »
The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most celebrated ideas in finance. It is also one of the most quietly ridiculous. Not because it is wrong, exactly, but because it asks you to believe something that your own eyes keep contradicting. It asks you to trust that the price of everything is always right,
Your brain is a terrible financial advisor. Not because it lacks intelligence or processing power, but because it evolved to keep you alive on the African savanna, not to evaluate stock portfolios. The mental shortcuts that helped your ancestors avoid becoming lunch now sabotage your investment decisions in ways both predictable and profound. Consider this:
The Availability Heuristic: Why One Bad News Story Outweighs Ten Years of Growth Read More »
When Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998, the story became a parable about hubris. Two Nobel Prize winners, the brightest minds in finance, and billions in capital disappeared in a matter of weeks. But the more interesting question isn’t how they failed. It’s what they were actually doing in the first place. The black
Decoding the Black Box: What Was LTCM Actually Trading? Read More »